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September 09, 2009

Week 1 - Fantasy Rankings - Running Backs

Week one rankings are a careful reflection of 2008 defensive production, making allowances for new personnel and schemes and any preseason trending. Thought is given to the potential flow of the game as highlighted by Vegas spreads and odds and player usage probabilities. I will be charting how far off I am on my predictions so I can calculate a margin of error for the season.

Scoring projections are based on standard systems - 1 point per 10 yards rushing receiving; 6 pts per TD. So lets begin:

Player (points) Proj. Stats Details
Tier 1 - RB 1s
1. Adrian Peterson (30) 180 yds rush, 2 TDs Cleveland gave up 150 yds a game last year. Look for Vikings to pound ADP
2. Matt Forte (30) 130 yds rush, 2 TDs, 50 rec Cutler will free Forte and this game will be barnburner. Ambitious - yes!
3. Tomlinson (28) 120 yds rush, 2 TDs, 60 rec If I tell you the Raiders D Line is Swiss Cheese and LT is back
4. Michael Turner (24) 120 yds rush, 2 TDs Dolphins D will do an adequate job but he will still get his yards and scores.
5. M Jones-Drew (24) 120 yds rush, 1 TD, 60 rec

Jags will attack Colts on ground with 2 rookie tackles and their new starter

6. Michael Westbrook (22) 100 yds rush, 1 TD, 60 rec We will see if the Panthers will be soft in the middle and if Westbrook is back
7. Ray Rice (21) 85 yds rush, 1 TD, 65 rec The Ravens will run all over the Chiefs and the Rice era begins
8. Steven Jackson (21) 90 yds rush, 1 TD, 60 rec The Seahawks may be better against the run but we'll need to see first.
9. DeAngelo Williams (20) 110 yds rush, 1 TD, 30 rec Eagles will do a good job, but D Willy can not be stopped.
10. Cedric Benson (20) 110 yds rush, 1 TD, 30 rec Benson gets the juicy matchup with the Broncos. Take result and trade em.
11. Mike Bell (20) 100 yds rush, 1 TD, 40 rec Bell has rededicated himself. With Thomas out he gets to feast on Lions.
12. Frank Gore (19.5) 90 yds rush, 1 TD, 45 rec 49ers O-Line is finally solid. Cardinals will try not to get Gored.
13. Kevin Smith (19.5) 90 yds rush, 1 TD, 45 rec Smith will get it on ground or through air in catch-up mode vs. Saints
14. Ronnie Brown (19.5) 90 yds rush, 1 TD, 45 rec Miami O-Line should be good 2nd year of Sparano. Falcons rush D so-so
Tier 2 - RB 2s
15. Julius Jones (17.5) 90 yds rush, 1 TD, 25 rec Rams couldn't stop anyone last year and if the Rams O stalls, Hawks grind.
16. Ryan Grant (17) 80 yds rush, 1 TD, 30 rec Packers should move ball and Grant will get some yards.
17. Tim Hightower (15.5) 50 yds rush, 1 TD, 45 rec Gets the TD, and runs and catches a lil bit vs. the 49ers.
18. Joseph Addai (15.5) 65 yds rush, 1 TD, 30 rec Colts begin a new era with Addai returning to form vs. Jags.
19. Thomas Jones (15) 90 yds rush, 1 TD The Jets will make it a point to run and take pressure off Sanchez.
20. Felix Jones (15) 50 yds rush, 1 TD, 40 rec A little here, a little there and a TD against the Bucs.
Tier 3 - RB 3s
21. Derrick Ward (13) 50, 1, 20 The Bucs O-Line is built to run block and they will do it until behind big.
22. Reggie Bush (12.5) 45, 0, 85 If truly healthy, he should get a good dose against Lions.
23. Chris Johnson (12) 85, 0, 35 He'll have some big games this year. Not sure opening vs. Steelers is one.
24. L. Maroney (12) 60, 1 I think we'll see more running by Pats this year but who carries?
25. Brandon Jacobs (12) 60, 1 Jacobs gets to be the first one in NFC to see the Haynesworth era of DC.
26. Willis McGahee (12) 60, 1 The Chiefs will give up the yards and the Ravens D will set the table.
27. Marion Barber (12) 60, 1 I nice way to start season against Buc, nothing spectacular though.
28. Steve Slaton (11.5) 75, 0 , 40 Ultimately Slaton's value will be seen by his goaline carries this game.
29. R. Mendenhall (11.5) 35, 1, 20 Titans lose Haynesworth. Steelers O-Line has a lot to prove as does Rashard.
30. Fred Jackson (11) 65, , 45 3 weeks to fully showcase his talents but the O-Line has issues.
31. Knowshon Moreno (11) 80, 0, 30 Broncos will bring along slowly but he should show some flashes vs. Bengals.
32. Beanie Wells (10) 40, 1 Healthy for game one - thats start. 49ers D-Line is not elite and with a lead...
Tier 4 - RB 4s
33. Michael Bush (9) 20, 1, 10 Is he a vulture this year? Will Raiders score enough anyway?
34. LenDale White (8) 20, 1 He is a vulture. Will a leaner White hurt him in short yardage.
35. Willie Parker (8) 60, 0, 20 He may just stay in the red zone if not winded. That would boost value.
36. Chris Brown (7.5) 15, 1 We he vulture Slaton's value? Thats the early skinny.
37. Darren MacFadden (7) 45, 0, 25 What will this year hold for D Mac? Week 1 to offer clues. Chargers tough.
38. LeSean McCoy (7) 40, 0, 30 Our first chance to see the future in action. Should producde vs Panthers.
39. Ahmad Bradshaw (6.5) 35, 0, 30 May not be enough this game for him, but he has upside.
40. Cadillac Williams (6.5) 45, 0, 20 Coach Morris calls him the starter as part of 3-headed back that'll run.
Tier 5 - RB 5s - I hope you have better
41. Fred Taylor (6) 40, 0, 20 Part of committee in NE. May start but what does that mean? Red Zone?
42. Clinton Portis (6) 60 Unless he scores, I don't think Portis or you will like the results this week.
43. Jerious Norwood (5.5) 30, 0, 25 Always a long TD threat when he touches it. Just not enough touches.
44. Donald Brown (5.5) 35, 0, 20 Excited to see what he can do with his speed and athleticism.
45. C. Buckhalter (5.5) 35, 0, 20 May start and get a fair share in week 1.
46. Chester Taylor (5) 30, 0, 20 If Vikings get up early as they should, this total could rise.
47. Darren Sproles (5) 30, 0, 20 If Chargers get up early as they should, this total could rise.
48. Larry Johnson (4.5) 45 Against the Ravens - no thank you.
49. Jamaal Charles (4.5) 20, 0, 25 Ditto
50. Jerome Harrison (4) 20, 0, 20 Is he the RB 2 in Cleveland or just 3rd down back?
51. Mewelde Moore (4) 10, 0, 30 Will see some 3rd down action.
52. Ladell Betts(4) 20, 0, 20 Ditto
53. Jamal Lewis (3.5) 35 Want to see a slow RB run in to a brick wall - watch him vs. Vikings.
54. James Davis (3.5) 35 Might not be long before he plays a lot but not vs. Vikings.
55. Earnest Graham (3) 30 As the 1 in Coack Morris's 2-2-1 equation, he has the short stick.
56. Justin Fargas (2) 20 Lingering health issues have him tumbling. Come back huggy bear.
     

WR and QB rankings to come.



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